Global stocks moved lower on Monday as oil prices rose after the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict added to uncertainty over energy supplies. Brent crude climbed above $107 a barrel, while major stock indexes and futures declined as investors assessed the potential impact of higher energy costs on inflation and interest rates. The move came as markets entered a week filled with economic data that could influence expectations for central-bank policy. Higher oil prices can increase costs for businesses and consumers, potentially keeping inflation elevated and limiting the scope for interest-rate cuts. At the same time, rising bond yields added to pressure on equities. Investors were therefore weighing the immediate effect of higher energy prices against the broader economic data expected later in the week.
Oil Prices Rise As US-Iran Talks Remain Uncertain
Oil prices moved higher after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal on Saturday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for an end to US strikes, the lifting of the naval blockade and oil sanctions, and the release of frozen Iranian assets, while both sides continued to leave the possibility of further discussions open. The waterway is an important route for global energy shipments, meaning uncertainty around its operations can affect expectations for oil supply.
Brent crude futures rose as much as 3% to $107.16 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures also gained. Brent was up 17% for September, having held above $100 for three weeks at that point, reflecting the effect of continuing supply concerns on the oil market. Higher oil prices can add to inflation by increasing costs across the economy, including transportation and production. That can influence expectations for monetary policy because persistent inflation may make it harder for central banks to lower borrowing costs.
Current Oil Flow Through Major Choke Points – 28/09/2026
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u/QFGTrialByFire in
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A September 28 discussion on Reddit tracked current oil flows through major shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz. The post uses shipping and vessel-tracking information, so it should be treated as additional market discussion rather than an independent confirmation of official supply figures.
Investing.com also described a cautious start for Asian markets as oil prices climbed and bond yields remained elevated. Investing.com put Brent at $107.27 a barrel and WTI at $94.13 and WTI at $94.13 during Monday’s trading. Higher inflation expectations can affect interest-rate expectations because central banks may have less room to ease monetary policy if price pressures remain persistent. That can weigh on stocks by increasing borrowing costs and reducing the relative appeal of equities. The market reaction was visible across major equity benchmarks. The MSCI All-World index fell 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures were down 0.3% and Nasdaq futures declined 0.7%. European stocks were also under pressure as investors assessed the effect of higher energy prices.
Bond Yields And Economic Data Keep Markets Focused On Rates
Alongside the move in equities, government bond yields also remained elevated. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.517%. Higher yields can increase financing costs for companies and make bonds relatively more attractive compared with stocks, creating another source of pressure for equity markets. The rate outlook is particularly important because investors are heading into a week packed with U.S. economic data. Employment figures and inflation data are expected to provide additional information about the strength of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rates.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem also kept inflation and monetary policy in focus. Musalem said persistent inflation could require additional rate increases, although he is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year. Money markets now price roughly a 66% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 meeting, up from about 58% a week ago. Rate expectations can shift quickly when inflation or energy prices change, making upcoming U.S. data particularly important for investors.
The upcoming data could therefore affect both bond yields and equity valuations. Strong economic or inflation readings could reinforce expectations for higher rates, while weaker figures could change how investors assess the future path of monetary policy. Markets are also watching developments in the Middle East because a prolonged disruption to energy flows could keep oil prices elevated. Oil rose while stocks and bonds fell after the rejection, which shows how directly the conflict is feeding into markets between the geopolitical developments and broader financial markets. The 10-year hit a 19-year high, up nearly 20bp, and 2-year yields are up 55bp this month.
