Key Highlights:
- Copper settled 0.85% lower today, October 9, 2026, as a stronger US dollar and rising crude oil prices weighed on demand.
- Hopes of restocking in China and tight global supply limited further losses in copper prices.
- Support is seen at Rs. 1,397.60, while resistance stands at Rs. 1,425.10.
Copper prices fell as a firmer United States dollar and rising crude oil prices weighed on demand expectations, although expectations of fresh buying from China limited the decline. Copper settled 0.85% lower at Rs. 1,407.45, with traders keeping a close watch on global supply risks and signs of improving demand in the world’s largest metal consumer.
A stronger dollar generally weighs on commodities priced in the US currency because it makes them more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Rising oil prices add another challenge, as higher energy costs can increase inflation concerns and raise expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for longer. This can slow economic activity and reduce demand for industrial metals such as copper.
China Demand Offers Support
Despite the decline, copper found some support from expectations that Chinese buyers may increase purchases after the country’s week-long holiday. Market participants expect restocking activity as factories and downstream users return to normal operations, particularly with inventories remaining low in China.
The Yangshan copper import premium rose 5% from its previous assessment to $125 per tonne, the highest level since November 2022. A higher import premium usually points to stronger demand for physical copper in China, as buyers are willing to pay more to secure shipments.
However, the overall demand picture remains mixed. China’s imports of unwrought copper and copper products fell to 382,000 tonnes in August from 425,000 tonnes in July. Imports during the first eight months of the year declined 6.7% year on year to 3.30 million tonnes, showing that underlying demand has not been uniformly strong.
Supply Risks Limit Losses
Concerns over mine supply also prevented a sharper fall in prices. Workers at Chile’s Centinela copper mine continued their strike, while BHP sought government mediation to avoid a possible strike at Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine. Any disruption at these operations could tighten global supply and support prices.
Chilean copper output fell 12.8% year on year in August, affected by storm-related disruptions and weaker ore grades. The decline adds to concerns that major producing countries may struggle to increase output at a time when long-term demand remains supported by power grids, renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres.
Tight physical conditions were also visible on the London Metal Exchange. Copper inventories remained low after 3,325 tonnes of cancelled warehouse orders, while the premium of the cash contract over the three-month forward contract widened to $120 per tonne from about $89. A higher cash premium often indicates that buyers need metal for immediate delivery and that nearby supply is tight.
Market Outlook Remains Mixed
Bank of America raised its long-term copper price forecast, citing limited supply growth outside the United States and continued tightness in China. The bank also noted that elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions could remain headwinds in the near term.
Meanwhile, speculators on the COMEX exchange reduced their net long copper positions by 3,940 contracts to 78,709 in the week ending September 29. The reduction suggests that some investors became more cautious as macroeconomic pressures increased.
The International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper market deficit of 51,000 tonnes in July, lower than the 74,000-tonne deficit recorded in June. Still, the market had a cumulative surplus of 32,000 tonnes during the first seven months of the year, compared with a surplus of 157,000 tonnes a year earlier. July production stood at 2.41 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.46 million tonnes.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, copper is witnessing long liquidation. Prices fell Rs. 12, while open interest declined 4.31% to 8,051 contracts, indicating that traders were reducing existing positions rather than opening fresh short positions.
Support for copper is seen at Rs. 1,397.60, followed by Rs. 1,387.80. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs. 1,425.10. A sustained move above this level could open the door for a further rise toward Rs. 1,442.80.
For now, copper is likely to remain under pressure from the stronger dollar and higher crude oil prices. However, tight mine supply, low inventories and possible restocking by Chinese buyers may continue to limit downside risks in the coming sessions.
