Key Highlights:
- Australia’s barley production is forecast to reach a record 17.7 million metric tons (MMT) in 2026/27, up 4.4% year-on-year, while wheat output is expected to fall 11.1% to 32 MMT.
- Improved October rainfall lifted sorghum production to 2.3 MMT, while milled rice output is forecast at 195,000 metric tons.
- Barley exports could reach 13 MMT, while rice imports are projected to hit a record 325,000 MT, emphasizing contrasting supply conditions across Australia’s grain market.
Australia’s grain outlook for the 2026/27 marketing year shows contrasting trends, with barley production expected to set a new record even as wheat output falls. Higher fertilizer costs, shifting planting decisions and concerns about seasonal conditions have influenced the outlook for the country’s major crops. Meanwhile, improved October rainfall has lifted production expectations for sorghum and rice, offering some ease to the summer crop outlook.
However, the projected decline in wheat production and continued reliance on imported rice point to uneven supply conditions across the agricultural sector. Export demand, particularly from China, is also expected to remain a salient factor shaping Australia’s grain trade.
Why Is Australia’s Barley Crop Expected to Reach a Record While Wheat Output Plunges?
Australia’s barley production is forecast to rise 4.4% year-on-year to 17.7 MMT in 2026/27, marking a second consecutive record. The increase reflects grower’s planting decisions, with some shifting acreage from wheat to barley amid higher nitrogen fertilizer costs and concerns about the effect of El Nino related weather conditions.
Wheat production, by comparison, is forecast to fall 11.1% to 32 MMT. Reduced planting in Queensland and northern New South Wales is expected to weigh on national output, while higher fertilizer costs have added pressure to growers’ decisions. Favourable spring conditions in southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia are supporting grain-filling, but are not expected to fully offset production losses in northern growing regions.
The stronger barley outlook is also expected to support exports. Australia’s barley exports could reach a record 13 MMT, with Chinese demand identified as a key driver. Stronger production could help maintain Australia’s position in international feed-grain markets, even as the wheat crop contracts.
However, estimates vary across forecasting agencies. Australia’s official agricultural forecasting agency, ABARES, projected wheat production of 29.9 MMT and barley production of 16.4 MMT in its September 2026 crop report. These estimates are below the figures in the more recent outlook cited above, underscoring the importance of identifying the forecast source and publication date when evaluating Australia’s crop prospects.
How Are Rainfall, Export Demand and Imports Shaping Australia’s Grain Market?
Improved October rainfall has raised the outlook for Australia’s summer crop. Sorghum production is now forecast at 2.3 million tonnes, up from an earlier estimate of 1.9 million tonnes. Exports are projected at 2.2 million tonnes, with China expected to remain the dominant purchaser. The new forecast offers some support to Australia’s coarse grain export perspective, although the final result will rely on growing conditions and demand.
Rice production is also expected to recover, with milled output forecast at 195,000 metric tonnes, as irrigation water availability improves. Production is nevertheless expected to remain below historical levels, leaving Australia on track to import a record 325,000 metric tonnes of rice. The perspective emphasizes improved rainfall can support a recovery without fully closing the domestic supply gaps.
Price conditions could also influence how Australian grain reaches export markets. The cited perspective placed Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures for 2026/27 at around 15% above the previous 10-year average as of October 15. Higher international prices could encourage growers and exporters to release stored wheat, partly offsetting the effect of lower new-crop production. This remains a probable market response rather than a guaranteed increase in export volumes.
Overall, Australia’s 2026/27 grain outlook reflects a shift in the balance between crops. Record barley production and sustained Chinese demand could help support exports, while lower wheat output may tighten supply. Improved rainfall has lifted sorghum and rice forecasts, but the projected record for rice imports shows that domestic production is not expected to meet all demand.
